Here are some brief thoughts about the Nanaimo by-election. But first, a little background.
During general elections political parties develop campaign platforms and a “ballot box question.”
They then design their election campaign to elevate the party’s platform, and to get voters to answer their ballot box question. In essence, the ballot box question is the lens that a party, or candidate, want the voters to view the election through.
If all of this is successful for a political party, then voters will answer the question “correctly.” When a majority of voters do this in a riding they elect a candidate, and if a party gets their candidates elected in a majority of ridings, then that party forms a majority government.
As we know in British Columbia it is more complex. We currently have a minority government. In other words, no party got more of than 44 (a majority of the 87 seats in the B.C. Legislature) of their candidates elected. Our government was formed based on an agreement between the BC NDP and the BC Greens.
Now on to the result in Nanaimo. There are important differences between general elections and by-elections.
First off, there isn’t a campaign platform in single riding elections. Second, the ballot box question is generally a referendum on government.
A binary question…
So, the ballot box question in a by-election is essentially a binary question. How do you think government is doing? Good, or bad?
People tend to line up their votes similarly. If they feel government is doing well, they vote for the government’s candidate. If not, then they tend to vote for the candidate from the opposition.
Traditionally, candidates from the governing party don’t do as well in by-elections. And, as a by-election will rarely change a government, the stakes are usually low.
In fact, that is normally the narrative of the pundits and journalists. These are the self-appointed election cognoscenti.
Nothing is normal in British Columbia
With the seat count in Victoria so close, and the contested seat vacated by a BC NDP MLA, voters in Nanaimo were asked to answer a very simple ballot box question. Do you want to keep the current situation, or change it?
They opted for the status quo and elected Sheila Malcolmson, the BC NDP candidate. And, as an extension, supported the minority government relationship at the same time.
Michele Ney is a fantastic candidate in an uphill climb from the get-go. Thank you Michele for your dedication. And, for being an excellent ambassador of an important message.
As for the journalists and the pundits who are lighting their hair on fire over the meaning of this election for the BC Greens, they are simply trying to create a story where one does not exist.
There are many evaluation metrics of my work, and the work of my colleagues. I don’t believe the result in Nanaimo is not one of them. (No matter how many Tweets that these experts volley.)
But, I accept both the positive and negative reviews of my work. It’s the only way to improve. Embrace evaluation, learn from it, find a better way and commit to the change.
Feel free to use the comment section below to share your thoughts and to let me know how you feel I am doing!
I think you’re a great MLA, right up there with BadAssBowinn Ma in awesomeness. Keep up the blogging, FB Live sessions and more!
I don’t live in Nanaimo and so didn’t have a vote. I feel that, thus far, our minority government is working reasonably well with some glaring deficiencies, being that I see climate disruption all around me and don’t see enough action to counter that threat. I also sense that we are beginning to see the fallout from not having cleaned house of all the political appointees left from the last administration. I suspect that the LAMC is a tiny tip of a very large iceberg. Cleaning out the stables thoroughly and ensuring that there is never again that kind of snakepit will take fortitude, strength, doggedness and time. My sense is that the people of Nanaimo were somewhat afraid to see a return to power of the current and future Liberal Party of BC and wanted to ensure that the current balance be maintained. Ms. Malcolmson is a constructive member of the community, and that may also be the case for Mr. Harris, but they are each beholden to a party structure more intent on politics than governing. Mr. Harris was more voted out than anything else, and Ms. Malcolmson may have functioned as more of a prophylactic against Andrew Wilkinson, as a figurehead, than as a carrier of a distinguished legislative program. Hence the importance of the PR referendum and the failure to implement a system that would attenuate the need for fear-based voting.
Well said Adam, keep up the good work and truly be authentic tackling the problems of BC head on with truth , passion and empathy. This is needed now more than ever…
Thank you Chris.
I am shocked that the press doesn’t seem to understand that many green supporters voted NDP because they didn’t want the Liberals back. It’s too bad we ran a green candidate in this unique, unusual election. It has hurt the BC Green Party. I just hope we can recover.
We have to run candidates. Legitimate political parties run candidates. But we were not going to be able to change the ballot box question. There is focus on this right now because it is the only story they could craft that was interesting in a BC NDP win. I imagine the media was rubbing their hands together for a BC Liberal win though. Chaos sells papers. Stability and cooperative public policy making is boring. The BC Greens will be just fine.
This sounds insightful. The status quo was paramount. And the “closeness” of the election was amplified by many of our journalists. So, not perceived as the time for any new “vision”. Lots of strategic voting once again – plus the fact that Sheila already has so much political experience, and a well-earned reputation. Kudos to Michele, nevertheless. Courage and commitment.
Although I understand your assessment, “voters are ok with status quo”, (other than a few less than main stream media comments), the public message is NDP gained 4% from 2017 and BCGreen lost 12%. When general public hears through media comments like, “demise and irrelevance of Green” party, I submit we had better take this voter and media shift seriously.
I would suggest there were “local” issues like affordable housing and transportation issues that interested Nanaimo voters and it appears the voters could not see much difference between NDP or Green vision and opted for more well defined platform.
My concern would be this by election is a small glimpse at next provincial election. Voters will see little air between NDP and Green agenda, they will see Premier Horgan as credible leader especially in juggling a coalition government and will choose between NDP and Liberals avoiding splitting left by voting Green.
My encouragement is to use by election results to identify key issues and develop a platform that starts voters talking about and government reacting to Green agenda, ie: investment and incentives to transition to sustainable affordable energy.
I don’t think there was a “bright green line” dividing Malcolmson and Ney.
Malcolmson served much of your district admirably as Chair of the Islands Trust Council, the land-use governance body for all the islands between Vancouver Island and the mainland. She was awesomely “little-g green” during that period, consistently supporting the Trust’s “preserve and protect” mandate, unlike those who have come after, who are more reticent to take on the developers and realtors.
So while strategic voting certainly played a part — voting Green in Nanaimo might have meant voting the Green Party out of their current influential position — I think the eco/enviro crowd had an embarrassment of riches between Malcolmson and Ney, and that made it easier for them to take the strategic choice.
In Malcolmson, I think we have yet another strong “little-g” green voice in BC’s Legislature.